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Summary
July 1st, 2024 - Information release Q3 - 2024
Right at the start of the flax pulling period, the industry is brimming with optimism about the upcoming harvest. Favourable weather conditions have made it possible to catch up after a slow start to the agricultural cycle and have ensured the best possible context.
As a result, and barring unforeseen weather events, our latest estimate forecasts average straw yields of 6-7 tons per hectare for spring flax. This is the first time this has happened since 2019. Winter flax (30,000 hectares sown for this harvest) is showing a slightly lower performance in some regions. Flax straw is the raw material used for fibre extraction during scutching.
Estimates areas under cultivation in 2024 :
France : 160,000 ha/Belgium : 20,000 ha/Netherlands : 3,000 ha/UK : 1,000 ha
These figures include spring and winter flax.
The area under the cultivation of European Flax™ is expected to reach at least 180,000 hectares (for spring and winter flax combined - see the Q2 news release of 31 May 2024 -, the highest figure since 2020 (when it reached 163,000 hectares). This means that the European sector will likely reach record levels of flax straw yields in a single harvest.
For now, it is impossible to determine how much flax fibre will be extracted from this volume of flax straw. Retting(3) will take place in the summer and will provide more detailed information about current trends.
Scutching of the current harvest will begin in autumn 2024 in French, Belgian and Dutch factories. It is only then that European Flax™ long fibre production is expected to increase. Supply will thus remain tight in the short term.
May 31, 2024 - Information release Q2 - 2024
Flax sowing in the spring began later than usual for our crop. This is due to a rainy start to the spring, which slowed down agricultural work that was completed at the end of May, whereas it is normally done by mid-April. While this discrepancy slightly reduces the plant growth cycle, it will not necessarily affect future yields if the flax emerges quickly and evenly.
According to the estimates of the Flax-Linen and Hemp Economic Observatory, the growing area of European Flax™ spring flax and winter flax combined will account for at least 180,000 hectares for the 2024 harvest. This represents a large increase compared with 2023 (+20%) and even with the record harvest of 2020 and its 163,000 hectares (+10%).
This sharp increase can be explained by the will of this NorthWestern European sector to meet market demand, which has suffered from four consecutive disappointing harvests that also resulted in a lack of material, and also by the attractiveness of the remuneration for farmers.
To date, yields have not yet been defined in terms of fibre volume and quality, since the agricultural cycle is still in its early phases. Also, long fibre yields from different harvests have varied as much as by a factor of three over the past decade, depending on the weather during the one hundred day cycle of the flax plant, from sowing to harvest, and during retting.
As for prices of European Flax™ long fibers on the market, the curve continued to increase in the first quarter in the context of an imbalance in supply/demand.
In March, the average price across all qualities and all production regions of European Flax™ fibre produced by European scutchers(1) (France, Belgium, Netherlands) reached €9.08/kg, representing a year-on-year increase of 55%.
Facing the challenge of satisfying supply, the European sector is continuing its significant R&D efforts by working with technical agricultural institues: Arvalis in France and Inagro in Belgium.
Arvalis conducted R&D programs in France focusing genomic research, physiological studies of flax fibre ar digital phenotyping tools.
January 30, 2024 - Information release Q1 - 2024
While the exact area under cultivation for 2024 is not yet known, projections/feedback from the field lead us to expect the area under European FlaxTM in France / Belgium / The Netherlands to exceed 160,000 hectares versus 150,000 hectares in 2023.
This is very close to, and could even exceed, the symbolic threshold of 163,000 hectares, the record set in 2020. This increase in area under cultivation in 2024 is part of an upward trend that began in the 2010s.
For the 2024 harvest, the area of winter flax sown in late 2023 is estimated at over 30,000 hectares - included in the more than 160,000 total hectares - in the three countries along the coastal strip of land stretching from Caen to Amsterdam. This is three times more than a year ago and six times more than two years ago.
According to a forecast made with European scutchers(1), the monthly production of European Flax™(2) is not expected to exceed 10,000 tonnes during the first half of 2024. For the sake of comparison: during the first two years, not including July and August, when activity ebbs, European scutchers were producing 12,000-16,000 tonnes of European Flax™ long fibres every month.
By the end of the first half of 2024, the production of European Flax™ fibres may dip under the threshold of 8,000 tonnes per month. This is due to the fact that flax straw from 2023, which resulted from a low harvest, will account for a clear majority of raw materials for scutching.
The average price of long European Flax™ fibre for all qualities combined increased from €6.05 per kilo in June 2023 to €8.23 in November 2023 (the latest available consolidated data), increasing by 36%.
This price is the average after scutching, not including transportation or any future intermediaries, and covers all qualities and all production regions in Northwestern Europe.
The 2023 harvest was difficult from an agricultural standpoint due to a series of weather events that were unfavourable for flax fibre yields. That’s why, the industry had informed the end market of a drop in future production for scutching in the months to come in its latest news releases dating July 4 and September 12, 2023.
3 signs of structural confidence and of this agro-industrial sector’s willingness to respond to the end market were observed:
On price, pressures on supply will continue at least until autumn 2024, which is when flax straw from the coming harvest will begin to be scutched. In the meantime, the pressure on flax prices is expected to continue in a context of increasing global demand for natural fibres.
In anticipation of increasingly frequent adverse weather events, the industry is focusing its R&D efforts on devising an agricultural action plan and is continuing to build its capacity to meet market demand for certified natural fibres.
(1) Scutching is the process whereby the components of flax straw are separated out: short fibres, long fibres, shives, seeds, through mechanical crushing and threshing. This term also refers to the industrial facility where this operation is conducted.
(2) Fibre used by Northwestern European scutchers is European Flax™ certified, guaranteeing a plant fibre from agriculture that is eco-friendly, irrigation-free barring exceptional circumstances, and GMO-free.
(3) Retting is the first natural step in the transformation of the plant into fibre after the Flax stalks have been pulled and laid in the field in swaths. The retting process occurs through a combination of moisture (rain, dew), sun, and microorganisms in the soil, whereby enzymes breakdown the natural glues between the fibres and the woody part of the plant. This stage helps facilitate the mechanical extraction of fibres during scutching.
The Linen and Hemp Economic Observatory regularly publishes information releases on the flax fibre market and the production of textile hemp:
2023 - Flax fibre market and production of textile hemp :
See information release 2023
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